Predicting Product Uptake Using Bass, Gompertz, and Logistic Diffusion Models: Application to a Broadband Product

An evaluation of the time-varying extended logistic, simple logistic, and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles

1474-0346/$ see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. A doi:10.1016/j.aei.2008.05.007 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +886 3 5727686; fax: E-mail addresses: [email protected] (C.V nctu.edu.tw (H.-Y. Wu). Many successful technology forecasting models have been developed but few researchers have explored a model that can best predict short product lifecycles. This research studies the forecast ...

Using product models to represent user requirements

The Service Life/Asset Management project at the Institute for Research in Construction has identified “enabling” technologies critical to attaining the project objectives of optimizing the service life of building envelope components and systems. The preliminary investigation concentrated on the need for close links between the enabling technology of user requirement modeling and those of serv...

A New Consideration on New Product Development Models

In order to achieve a successful new product, and certainly the successful implementation of a new product into a company, it is necessary to have a structured and documented approach to New Product Development (NPD), therefore providing a clear roadmap for the development of new products.New product development is a multi-stage process. Many different models with a varying number of stages hav...

An Improved Method for Meta-Analysis with Application to New Product Diffusion Models

Extending Bass for Improved New Product Forecasting

Forecasting demand for new products is increasingly difficult as the technology treadmill drives product lifecycles shorter and shorter. The task is even more challenging for electronic goods, where product lifecycles are measured in quarters, manufacturing processes in months, while the market volatility takes place on a day-to-day basis. We present a model that perpetually reduces forecast va...